Guest Post – The Theory of Global-Warming-Induced-Climate Change

This is a submitted post. Thank you Kevin Wilks.

It is often claimed by the sceptics that there is insufficient factual data to demonstrate that the threat of global warming is real. This, however, would seem to indicate that they are not fully aware of what the theory of global warming says or understand how it works rather than that they have evidence to show that the theory is false. The theory of global warming is a simple, straight-forward and complete theorem and is based on a small number of widely known and easily-verifiable facts, none of which is in any way controversial.

We are talking about a possible disturbance to the world’s weather-making processes resulting from an increase in the capacity of the atmosphere to retain solar heat. What we call weather consists of the continuous changes of the physical state of water in the atmosphere from water vapour (gas) to droplets of condensed water vapour which makes up clouds, to liquid water which falls as rain, to solid water in the form of ice and snow. These processes are in response to changes in air temperature, as shown below.

The theory of global-warming-induced climate change

* Weather events consists of phase changes of the moisture in the air (from gas to liquid to solid and back again)
* Atmospheric moisture content increases with air temperature
* Air temperature is determined by the amount of solar heat retained
* Amount of solar heat retained is determined by presence and total quantity of heat retaining greenhouse gases (CO2 + H2O + others) in the atmosphere
* The effect of rising concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere is to increase the quantity of solar heat retained
* The amount of global warming is proportional to the increase in CO2 content
* Therefore, the increase in weather intensity (climate change) is proportional to the increase in CO2 content
QED

This theory was first put forward in 1895 by Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish scientist. The only thing that could invalidate this theory would be if the two well-known mitigating factors of a compensatory increase in the rate of fixation of CO2 by increased plant photo-synthesis, and by an increase in the amount being dissolved in the oceans, were to occur. The clear fact is that the concentration of CO2 has continued to rise can only mean that these mitigating factors are too slow-acting to have the desired effect. Thus, all the opponents of climate change have to do to prove their point is to prove that one or more of the facts on which global-warming theory is based are incorrect.

Kevin Wilks, BSc(Hons), Syd., 1949

Copyright belongs to original author.

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